Investment Thesis

Investment Thesis

I was SUPER overwhelmed with all this chaos recently. 

So I planned out quiet time for me to think. 

I then came up with my investment thesis which I will walk through today. 

Original asset allocation: 

  • 60% cash 40% equities

Steps I took in my Action Plan:

  • Reduced equity allocation down to 30% 
  • Split the 30% in half — 15% self-managed and 15% AdvicePeriod managed
    • Of 15% managed (80% stocks 20% bonds)
  • Sold all real estate investment trusts (REITs), thinking commercial real estate will be challenged long-term 
  • Moved that amount into long-term with dividends (Amazon, Microsoft, Verizon, JP Morgan, Budweiser, Chevron, Berkshire Hathaway) 
    • Dollar-cost Averaging these purchases back into the market
  • Set a threshold to sell your stocks 
  • As the economy is unstable, I increase BTC position incase of a universal downfall 
  • “10 Baggers” portfolio allocation that is risky but could 10x in return
  • Optional: move 5% in and out of portfolio to hedge on downside risk 

 

Note: this is NOT investment advice. (Matter of fact when it comes to investing, I always lose money.)

Comment what you are planning in your investment thesis.

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12 responses to “Investment Thesis”

Ryan
April 9, 2020 at 12:42 pm

One thing to keep in mind, and I think it is the hardest thing in investing, is selling. Buy and hold only works if you get in at a great price--which are coming soon, if not now. Every investment should come with a goal and time horizon. A rule of thumb I use is if your investment doubles, sell half. Even an index fund bought in Feb 2016 nearly doubled by Feb 2020. Why grow a garden if you never harvest and eat any of it? Easier said than done, but you have to take some off the table for times like these. Hope this helps, as your products and affiliates have helped me.

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Sam
April 5, 2020 at 5:09 am

Great vid!

I was 10% high risk (Crypto), 70% equities and 20% Gold.

However with the current market conditions and need for house deposit next year I'm now at:

10% Gold, 90% cash (a chunk in Premium Bonds this is a UK government lottery with deposit guaranteed, works out as circa 1.5%).

I'm expecting further equity falling which seems correlated to Crypto (for now) so will repurchase my 10% high risk at that point (I'm expecting a big boom winter time since Bitcoin typically booms 6 months after having which is due in May).

Another 6 months after that I'll rebuy in equities (excluding house deposit) and probably sell gold. Times roughly based on average bear markets.

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Bart
April 4, 2020 at 6:56 pm

Dude - this was great.
Thanks for walking us thru your thesis + watchlist, and shoutout to Aswath.

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xoSheree
April 8, 2020 at 8:18 am

Bart, ditto. Thank you Noah, and yes, shoutout to Aswath! He has a few follower 🙂

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Shelby
April 1, 2020 at 5:20 pm

Love this video! Especially the part about creating a portfolio that helps you sleep at night. That's crucial. Holding the entire stock market for the long term ensures you capture all of the market rebound. That's my strategy, but not necessarily for everyone.

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MaryAnn Markowitz
April 1, 2020 at 1:24 pm

Thanks for always putting yourself out there. We survived 2008-09 and changing lifestyle based on Tim Ferris 4 hour work week, we have zero debt. Working on a money mindset has been huge for me, we have not repeated our mistakes in 08-09 but as Winston Churchill said, we are probably making up new ones now.

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Kris Nocker
April 1, 2020 at 12:19 pm

If you’re going to stock level, and not funds/fund of fund, think about things that will have been pulled down with capital markets but whose business mode is pretty stable.

Companies like Sage (accounting provider) who have custom who have to keep paying (unless they go bust). Big shopping stores (I’m in the UK and see that Tesco, ASDA, can’t fill their shelves quick enough!)

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ANDY ENRIGHT
April 1, 2020 at 10:51 am

Thanks for sharing your perspective. Investing can be intimidating for me, it seems there's always more to learn than I can possibly wrap my brain around, and just when I think I have a grasp, BAM! the market changes and I'm back in the dark strategy-wise. The takeaways from your presentation for me are to not stress about day-to-day fluctuations, try to make non-emotional decisions, spread the risk across the spectrum, and stay in touch with your money. It's all about making your money work harder than you. Great job, thanks Noah!

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Sean Reel
April 1, 2020 at 10:18 am

I always lose money.)

If you believe it will or believe it will not. You are right. H.Ford

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Andruski
April 1, 2020 at 9:50 am

I don't see gold in your portfolio. Also, your stock pick seems really bizarre: Chevron (an oil company when oil prices are collapsing)?? JP Morgan - anything "bank-related" is a big no-no risk. Verizon? People stopped using mobile traffic almost completely. Budweiser when the restaurant business is shut down and on the verge of collapse.

Some good stuff there as well: get rid of commercial RE, increase BTC, stop losses.

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Terbo
April 1, 2020 at 10:33 pm

And thats why its not advice and only a personal opinion EG gold is not an 'investment', it's an asset that doesnt pay any income, like a painting or baseball cards, he has cash as security instead. JP Morgan - banks are going to be the big lenders to business post recovery, Budweiser - everyone likes small treats in a recession eg champagne sales go up, beer will also do ok. Would expect virtual communication options to go through the roof short and longer term as the new normal, not sure on an oil company either but if Chevron are investing in renewables as well then may be a future leader there? skate to where the puck is going...

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Craig
March 31, 2020 at 8:54 am

What are your thoughts on Digital Assests?

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